This was a good attempt at analysis but by making it dangerous for anyone to cross the strait it's essentially closed to everyone. That passage atm is currently uninsureable. Nobody will pay if your ship sinks. Iran has made their oil resources unusable for the entire world and as a short term move it's good, but long term will cause them to become irrelevant and it's their only export. The only saving grace is that America finds no loss of life acceptable while killing millions of civilians abroad, otherwise ground war imminent. We'll see what happens next!