Originally Posted by
Thrandir
I was going to write such a application (ruby based one) but I failed as I couldn't log at toribash.com properly (I am programming newb, mechanize didn't work as I cannot into session saving using cookies).
API provided by Fish is absolutely enough to make app gathering data and showing them using graphs, which would let to predict proper price for any item put into market. It just needs anybody with proper python / ruby / anything skills to write it. My friend said it would need less than 100lines in ruby (downloading data, saving them properly, generating graphs). I wanted to do it, but failed at logging in which is needed to download torimarket data in json format.
by the way, I am pretty sure the only factor such an app should use to predict proper price is lowest market price. And to get average price, it would just take differences in minimum price on given period of time.
if talking about buying- it is up to devs to create such a thing, as regular user cannot determine whether item was taken from market or bought. However, I am sure that average minimum price would be accurate enough- and it could be done by any user. main con is the fact that it won't take "popularity" into account, which may make rare/ not really popular items price predictions struggle over time ( their price vary harder).
oh, and- yeah, over time prediction IS important. It would advise some users to wait with their buy as for example item is way higher than it used to be. however, it shouldn't be long-time analysis- it could show price change over a week.
Only going to point out so parts I don't quite agree on.
Bolded part - the current lowest market price isn't the only time it has been bought for that price
(Last paragraph) - giving the users something that predicts how an item might do over time would kill the item forum completely, which isn't something I want to do. Even more threads will go un-viewed, specifically on items that the market tells them will be a lower price later. Making it near impossible to sell items that would currently be a high price. As an example: the market tells the users that a Supernova Force will be worth 8k 2 months from now, but is currently averagely 13k. Anyone wanting to sell their Supernova Force would get no buyers simply because everyone knows that the price will be 8k later on and wants to get the better deal. The point isn't to have the exact price of an item and destroy any element of marketing. The idea is to make marketing a little more 'accessible' to everyone. Rather than the big market-head users controlling item prices, this will tell everyone the range of prices on an item based on what people have bought, so they themselves can decide whether they are getting a good deal or not.
Anyway, I'm back with some results from the data Fish gave me. This is based on ALL purchases of Supernova Force from the beginning of the market (May 1st, 2011). I have been given the prices and amount of times this item has been bought for that price. There are currently 249 Supernova Forces in Toribash. The data tells me that the highest probable price a Supernova Force can be sold 'on the street' is 18k, the lowest price is 10.2k, and the average price that this item has been sold at is 12.9k. All of these amounts are rounded up to make them easier to read and to keep the aspect of marketing alive, since basically everyone will know not to buy much lower than 10.2k or much higher than 18k, but can still make considerable profit. This has also factored in how many people have bought their Supernova Force for the market price.