All of what you've said so far is pretty fair. Despite what Shapiro says, I have a hard time believing the suicide rates don't go down post-op, but until I find the right credible research, we'll agree to disagree. And yeah, these ideas are speculative.
I think it's fair to say that yes we need tons more research; however, it's still wrong in my mind to suppress minority because of... statistics. We're talking about every transgendered person and placing this blanket statement that they have more mental problems and higher suicide rates. Well yeah, that's true, but that doesn't mean the one standing right in front of his commanding officer isn't mentally healthy. He/she/they/whatever pronoun they use could pass a mental health exam with a psychologist... possibly a test that present day current straight white veterans would fail.
To apply the statistic to a whole demographic isn't acceptable. This isn't car insurance...