It doesn't come down to who made the right guess really, it comes down to who appreciated the risks better, repeteadly.
Do it once, and you get rewarded with a good setup. Do it again, and you come closer to the win. The third time, you may actually have lifted your opponent out of the dojo, or forced him to dq.
This game is not about guessing, but about estimating risks.

In addition to that, skill lies in expanding the amount of ways you can save yourself in bad positions, by being creative and knowing your Tori down to every exploit/usage in it's physique.

I think that is a reasonable and broad enough idea to encompass all kind of playing.
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Perhaps I should've sent this in a pm, not really contributing here.