Thanks for the detailed comments!
For the run, I agree, it needs a better "bewm" attack, but for now, I'm going to leave it as it is ;]
I looked at your sp replays Arch, and man they are awesome! I want to have a go at the non-grab madmans like yours, they are really awesome.
As for knowing what to counter, most people under 5th dan (or maybe a little lower) repeat moves until they get owned. So, if I see someone using the same move twice or more, I do counters that I made for most of the common openers that people copy from wiki (or where ever they get those boring moves from =.=). It works like a charm. As for the more skilled players, it's more of a paper, scissors, rock situation. You either hit, miss, or get hit ;)